The Four Peaks

	Peak #1: Volume growth Supply expanding 13X from 4GW in 2007 to 52GW in 2012, but % YoY growth rate will slow beyond from 2009
	Peak #2: Price Strong demand environment driven by low interest rates, rising grid prices and policy support makes price crash unlikely, but prices declining 7% CAGR 2007-2012 including -11% YoY in 2009
	Peak #3: Profit margin Solar cost reductions continue at a -7% CAGR 2007-2012 and OP margin remain >30%, but tight areas of supply chain reduce pace of cost reductions and lead to profit margin contraction from 2009
	Peak #4: Electricity PV is rapidly penetrating electricity markets and will achieve noticeable share by 2012, but the expansion may hasten saturation and/or backlash from traditional electricity players
	Peak players: 6 “solar sisters” Six companies are pulling away from rest of the industry by pursuing strategies at the electron level, each possessing realistic potential to achieve more than $6bn in revenue and $1.5bn in operating profit by 2012: First Solar, Q-Cells, REC, SolarWorld, SunPower and Suntech.

Other companies covered in this report

Applied Materials, ATS, BP Solar, Canadian Solar, Centrotherm, China Sunergy, DC Chemical, Dow Corning, EDF, Elkem, Ersol, E-ton, Evergreen/EverQ, First Solar, Fluor, GCL, Gintech, Globe Metallurgical, Green Energy Technology, GT Solar, Hemlock, HHI, Isofoton, JA Solar, JACO, Jetion, JFE, Jinglong, KCC, Kyocera, LDK, M.Setek, MEMC, Mitsubishi Electric, Motech, Neo Solar, Nexolon, Nitol, NorSun, Oerlikon, PV Crystalox, Q-Cells, REC, Renesola, RSI, Sanyo, Sharp, Siliken, SMA, Solarfun, Solaria Energia, SolarWorld, Solon, Sumco, SunEdison, SunPower, Suntech, Timminco, Trina, Wacker, Wafer Works, and Yingli.

NOTE: Preliminary. All data are rough estimates.